Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Weary Confidence vs Rabbitohs
Any hearty fan understands the fragile nature of New Zealand Warriors confidence and an away trip to take on Rabbitohs offers a lovely check in with how legit the confidence is. NZW depth is on show once again as Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad returns to fullback with Roger Tuviasa-Sheck slotting in at fullback, while Te Maire Martin gets an opportunity in the halves with Marata Niukore sliding into a starting edge forward spot.
Rabbitohs aren't as good as they have been in previous seasons and this is in contrast to a slick NZW outfit. While NZW are completing at 81.4%, Rabbitohs are cruising along at 76.8% and this is amplified by a hefty disparity in kick return metres with NZW averaging 216.6m and Rabbitohs averaging 148.3. NZW average 593.2 post contact metres per game and Rabbitohs average 542.5.
The recipe for NZW has worked well for back to back wins against Raiders and Knights. NZW have been patient throughout both games, playing tough and ripping in for defensive efforts to ground down their opposition. Rabbitohs will be welcomed into this grind and as they have conceded almost twice as many points as NZW, Rabbitohs will have to account for the variety of ways NZW score points.
Against Knights, NZW scored three tries without much shape and none of those tries came from shifts to score in the corner. Jackson Ford hit a short pass, Chanel Harris-Tavita pushed up in support of a Wayde Egan linebreak around the ruck and Marcelo Montoya scored from a kick. NZW will challenge Rabbitohs all across the park and it will be fun to track which attacking movements are the most productive, assuming NZW can settle into their flow.
There were a couple examples from the win over Knights that signal what Nicoll-Klokstad could do at fullback as well as what Tuivasa-Sheck can do while playing centre. Egan's linebreak came with Tuivasa-Sheck offering support and while Harris-Tavita kept tracking Egan to score, the presence of Tuivasa-Sheck helped Egan sneak through...
Tuivasa-Sheck also appeared cutting back towards the ruck, receiving the footy from Shaun Johnson and behind a Tohu Harris decoy run...
Nicoll-Klokstad can execute these plays and he has nifty footwork/skills to add value. Don't forget that Nicoll-Klokstad averaged 188m/game last season with seven tries, eight try assists and eight linebreaks. That's a career-high 188m/game and Nicoll-Klokstad may chase down that mark given how various NZW are offering career-best mahi...
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is averaging 181m/game, his first season over 155m/game.
Rocco Berry is averaging 100m/game, his first season over 75m/game.
Shaun Johnson is averaging 76m/game, his first season over 75m/game since 2014 (78m) and 2015 (79m).
Jackson Ford is averaging 123m/game, his first season over 105m/game.
Mitchell Barnett is averaging 155m/game, his first season over 135m/game.
Tohu Harris is averaging 167m/game, his second season averaging over 140m/game (2020 - 173m/game).
Martin has been selected to take over from Luke Metcalf, even though Harris-Tavita snapped up his opportunity in the win over Knights. Here's what Martin has been up to in NSW Cup...
Three games, four try assists, six linebreak assists, 86m/game, 221.8 kicking metres/game, 60 tackles @ 93.8%.
Martin will probably run the left edge where his passing and vision adds a new angle to NZW attack, especially if he is able to get Tuivasa-Sheck early ball in a bit of space. The return of Nicoll-Klokstad could see him back on the right edge where his quick hands and decision making was crucial for NZW attack. Johnson can play in the middle on either side of the ruck where he can combine with the passing forwards, bumping Martin out a few passes to the left and Nicoll-Klokstad on the right.
Johnson's kicking game will also be crucial as NZW will look to control the game by pinning Rabbitohs down their end and keeping Latrell Mitchell busy. Martin has been the main kicker in NSW Cup and he will add a slick kicking option, allowing NZW to kick to the Rabbitohs wingers and load up on a Mitchell run, or hitting Mitchell as soon as he gathers a kick. Moving Mitchell around and kicking to space will also be key, especially if NZW can score points from grubbers.
It seems unlikely that Niukore will play 80 minutes at edge forwards as he rarely did that last season and is still building up his workload this season. Coach Andrew Webster can put Barnett at edge forward with more middle forwards on the bench to plug the Barnett hole in the middle, or Jacob Laban could sneak on to the bench as a late inclusion and get 10-20mins at edge forward.
NSW Cup Warriors are also playing Rabbitohs, prior to the NRL game and Laban is named at edge forward there. Jacob Auloa is selected on the bench again after being promoted from Under 19 SG Ball and he played 15 minutes at hooker. Harry Durbin lost his spot to Tom Ale who dropped down from NRL but Durbin is named on the bench this weekend.
Who knows how the U21 Jersey Flegg team will line up but Caleb Laiman has been selected at halfback with Luke Hanson. Laiman had previously played hooker and there is plenty of dummy half depth on offer with Etuate Fukofuka starting hooker in U21s, while Makaia Tafua is named on the bench. Given that Auloa has leaped ahead of these lads, he has obviously made a strong impression on the NZW coaches.
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