Aotearoa Warriors Diary: The Grind Continues vs Sea Eagles
New Zealand Warriors return to Mt Smart where they host Sea Eagles who haven't won a game away from their Brookvale fortress this season. NZW and Sea Eagles share the same 3-2 record which is reflected in a bunch of stats for both teams, although the NZW grind that is headlining their 2024 footy matches up well with a few pockets of Sea Eagles footy (averages per game)...
Set Completion
NZW: 5th | MSE: 14th
Errors
NZW: 13th | MSE: 2nd
Missed Tackles
NZW: 13th | MSE: 2nd
Kick Metres
NZW: 5th | MSE: 16th
NZW have scored points in a variety of ways throughout the last three wins but their ability to dictate the flow and patiently dissect opponents is the most exciting thing about NZW footy. Not only are Sea Eagles 3-0 at home and 0-2 away, they have some basic weaknesses that NZW could pounce on as they did against Rabbitohs and Knights.
One stat where NZW and Sea Eagles are closely ranked is dummy half running but there is still a sneaky difference. Despite Wayde Egan showcasing his importance to NZW in recent outings, NZW are 16th for average dummy half runs per game. Egan and his comrades do enough out of dummy half to pose a threat around the ruck though. Panthers and NZW average 6.4 dummy half runs as teams ranked 15th and 16th, Sea Eagles are the only team below that mark on 4.6 scoots per game.
Kurt Capewell returns to right edge, which bumps Mitchell Barnett back to the middle and Jacob Laban to the bench. Laban could dabble in middle mahi with Bunty Afoa out injured, or he may give Capewell a wee break and coach Andrew Webster has left players on the bench for 80 minutes before, so Laban could be there just incase.
If Laban is there just incase, why not deploy Zyon Maiu'u for his debut at Mt Smart? Any possibility of Maiu'u playing at Mt Smart needs to be highlighted because he will quickly earn the hype of home fans with his hectic energy. Maiu'u will be a fan-favourite once he takes that first run and given how the squad is named, that's a chance for this weekend.
Coach Webster also likes to let things simmer and he will have no issues carrying Laban on the bench. This is reinforced by Tom Ale playing24mins vs Raiders and 23mins vs Rabbitohs...
vs Raiders: 8 runs - 77m @ 9.6m/run, 2 tackle breaks, 17 tackles @ 94%
vs Rabbioths: 9 runs - 100m @ 11.11m/run, 2 tackle breaks, 11 tackles @ 91%
Ale played 14mins vs Storm and he missed the game vs Knights. Now Ale has an opening to maybe hit 30mins vs Rabbitohs, which is the usual mark for Jazz Tevaga who played 34mins vs Raiders, 23mins vs Knights and 32mins vs Rabbitohs. It's possible that Chanel Harris-Tavita plays as a small forward as well and that the three starters, specifically Addin Fonua-Blake and Mitchell Barnett, get a few extra minutes; NZW aren't desperate for Laban to play through the middle.
NZW aren't desperate for much at the moment and the return of Dallin Watene-Zelezniak provides the first opportunity to see the top-tier back five combo. Add in a personal preference for Te Maire Martin in the halves and this is my first-chose NZW backline. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is one of the best fullbacks in the NRL and this was on show throughout 2023, but his mahi with a broken rib for Aotearoa Kiwis in their 30-0 win over Australia to finish last year provides two crazy games to highlight...
vs Australia: 30 runs - 277m @ 9.2m/run, 2 linebreak assists, 1 try assist, 6 tackle breaks, 4 offloads, 2 tackles @ 100%
vs Rabbitohs: 24 runs - 263m @ 10.9m/run, 1 linebreak, 1 linebreak assist, 2 try assists, 5 tackle breaks, 5 tackles @ 71%
Big ups to Adam Pompey though for two impressive performances at centre.
Pompey averaged 136m/game and had 96.9% tackling in two wins. For context within Pompey's career, he didn't average over 110m/game in five seasons prior and he never went above 87% tackling. The stars will align in Pompey's favour again throughout the season and in this NZW roster there is a feeling of 'all good' with any player stepping into the NRL team.
This goes deep. 18-year-old Sio Kali made his NSW Cup debut at centre last weekend and U19 SG Ball comrade Kayliss Fatialofa also made his debut in the forwards, as well as Harry Durbin who went up from U21 Jersey Flegg. Kali is named in U21s this week with a bunch of lads who have moved up from U19s and Fatialoa may feature in U21s as he is in the wider squad for NSW Cup. Durbin is named on the bench for U21s but could pop up anywhere. Fatialofa drops down because 18-year-old Leka Halasima is named for his first NSW Cup game of the year.
Halasima is named at edge forward and there is also Paul Roache in the halves which opens up a spot for Jacob Auloa to play dummy half. Roache played in the halves last weekend with Freddy Lussick sliding back down to NSW Cup and now Auloa gets a crack after his 15mins at hooker vs Knights. All of this can change quickly as they usually do in the lead up to games below NRL, but the presence of Auloa as well as other NZW youngsters highlights how effective the junior pipeline is.
Auloa, Kali, Fatialofa have all made NSW Cup debuts in recent weeks as U19 lads. Durbin debuted after starting in U21s this year. Maiu'u, Tanner Stowers-Smith and Eddie Ieremia-Toeava are all playing NSW Cup consistently. Halasima is back in action and Setu Tu is the only lad in the back five who hasn't played NRL. Demitric Sifakula and Patrick Moimoi have missed the start of the season with Sifakula on the fringe of NRL, while Moimoi is a centre who will be chasing a steady gig in NSW Cup.
Depth was mentioned a lot around the win over Rabbitohs and that only involved top-tier NRL matters. NZW have at least a couple options in every position and no one should be surprised if/when NZW win without their top-17. Laban's NRL debut came at the same time as three youngsters (Durbin, Kali, Fatialofa) made their NSW Cup debuts having played SG Ball last year. At some point Leiataua, Sifakula, Maiu'u, Stowers-Smith, Halasima and Ieremia-Toeava will be in the NRL mixer as well.
Not only are NZW playing footy in a way that folks have always wanted, the talent emerging from the pipeline is also exactly what folks have been seeking. All of which requires a 'wait, is this real?' moment and deserves to be celebrated at the temple of Mt Smart.
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