2021 City Kickboxing Tracker: Kai Kara-France vs Cody Garbrandt Preview
Back to back weekends of Kiwi-UFC action didn't start too great with Brad Riddell losing in the third round of his bout vs Rafael Fiziev, now Kai Kara-France comes up against Cody Garbrandt in a flyweight contender match up. Due to the lay out of the flyweight division and Garbrandt's high profile status, the stars could align for Kara-France to get a title shot next year with a win over Garbrandt. While Riddell is building his way into the lightweight upper-echelon, Kara-France has low key set up shop among the best flyweight's in the world.
We last saw Kara-France in March when he defeated Rogerio Bontorin in the first round. This was a beautiful Team City Kickboxing performance as Kara-France absorbed 3:15 minutes with Bontorin wrapping him up, controlling all matters via an early takedown. Kara-France rolled through his defensive grappling skills to escape, then knock Bontorin out...
Kara-France started his UFC career with three wins, before losing to Brandon Moreno who is now champion. That’s part of a 2-2 run in Kara-France's last four fights and while Moreno went on to win the belt, the other loss was to Brandon Royval who has lost his two fights since (including a loss to Moreno). In UFC divisions that are more stacked with talent, monster win-streaks are built and losses bounce fighters down a peg or two. In the flyweight division, Kara-France has been able to maintain his standing with wins after losses and less division depth.
Hence Garbrandt is dropping down from bantamweight to flyweight. Garbrandt won the bantamweight championship in 2016 and then lost three fights in a row, with a 1-4 record in his last five fights. Now Grabrandt is dropping down a division to invigorate his career and while Garbrandt has been losing a lot more than Dan Hooker, Hooker's possible move from lightweight to featherweight is a solid comparison.
Assuming the fighter doesn't stress too much during the weight cut, the theory is that a drop in divisions gives the fighter a size/power advantage. While I hope that Hooker shines with such a move, Kara-France is a delightful match up for Garbrandt who lost all three fights in his losing streak via KO/TKO. Garbrandt's most recent loss vs Rob Font came via decision and Garbrandt landed 63/142 significant strikes, while Font landed 176/365 strikes.
Garbrandt may drop down a division with better defence, or ability to deal with striking power. At the same time, a bigger weight cut can amplify the damage of head strikes due to the physical stress of cutting weight. Garbrandt has three consecutive KO/TKO losses, then got heavily out-struck by Font and now he comes up against Mr Don't Blink himself...
Strikes Landed per Min
Kai Kara-France: 5.02
Cody Grabrandt: 3.17
Strikes Absorbed per Min
Kai Kara-France: 3.84
Cody Grabrandt: 4.14
Average Takedowns per 15min
Kai Kara-France: 0.53
Cody Grabrandt: 1.05
In his last fight, Kara-France showed his grappling prowess to then showcase his heavy hands. Garbrandt will be eager to use his perceived power advantage, which could lead to more takedown attempts as well. Kara-France will be happy to trade blows with Garbrandt and none of Grabrandt' wrestling will scare Kara-France. Expect a hum-dinger of a scrap and Kara-France to light Garbrandt up.
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