Kiwi Steve in the NBA #4: Igniting The Revival
The Memphis Grizzlies hit the skids recently and it was not a pretty sight to see. A spell of seven consecutive wins flittered away in a hurry with four defeats from five games from in the back half of December. They had climbed to the summit of the Western Conference but that didn’t last as they were unexpectedly dropped 115-109 away to Oklahoma City, then got smoked by 24 points away to Denver before thumping the Phoenix Suns who are on an even bigger slump of their own... but then consecutive big defeats against Golden State and in a rematch with Phoenix meant that this was definitely something that needed to be addressed.
And address it they did. The Grizzlies have since won seven on the trot and they’ve done so by leaning hard upon the sturdiest man in the team. Steven Adams has not been the only reason for the revival, of course he hasn’t (seems incredibly pertinent to point out that Ja Morant had a career-high 17 assists in the win against Toronto that ended the slump), but it’s also surely not a coincidence that he’s shone as the team regained their form. Here’s what Adams did in the subsequent four games...
at Toronto: 32 MIN | 14 PTS (7/11 FG) | 17 REB (8 OFF) | 3 AST
vs New Orleans: 27 MIN | 10 PTS (4/6 FG) | 21 REB (5 OFF) | 3 AST | 2 BLK | 2 STL
vs Sacramento: 35 MIN | 11 PTS (5/12 FG) | 23 REB (13 OFF) | 3 AST | 2 BLK
at Charlotte: 27 MIN | 9 PTS (3/7 FG) | 15 REB (4 OFF) | 2 AST | 2 BLK
They’ve since carried that winning streak on to seven games in a row, although Adams had some foul trouble in the fifth one against Orlando which limited his personal stats, then he sat out the sixth versus Utah with a “non-covid illness”. However he did return to face the San Antonio Spurs next up and had another massive stat line with 13 points (5/7 FG), 15 rebounds (4 offensive), and 4 assists.
He also shot 3/11 from the free throw line as the Spurs made a point of hacking him. Were he not the worst free throw shooter in the NBA this season then he could have added several more points... but that’s a topic for later in this piece.
In the four defeats of that sloppy stretch, Adams played the third most minutes but only took 21 total field goal attempts (eighth most). He also had nothing to do with the stat which most doomed them in that week which was their three-point shooting. A pitiful 24% across four combined games, 34/140 overall.
Also weirdly he made 5/7 free throws in those ones yet the team still only hit their charity shots at 76% - a low key factor for this side, one that could come back to haunt them in the playoffs, is that they’re not a good free throw shooting team at all. In fact they’ve got the worst FT% in the league over the whole season and it goes way beyond Monsieur Adams. 71.6% as a team... it ain’t good, bruv. Other than a couple killer three-point snipers they’re not actually a very great shooting team at all. The Grizzlies’ offensive prowess comes from Ja Morant getting to the rim and all their extra possessions. Both heavily influenced by the presence of Steven Adams.
On that note, in the four wins that began this revival streak, Adams again played the third most minutes but this time he took 36 field goal attempts which was bettered only by his four fellow starters (oh yeah, we’re well sorted with the fab five again now, don’t worry about that). Funny thing is the three-pointers didn’t actually get much better. The Grizz upped their game from 24% to 30% (37/120 overall) but that’s still a rubbish conversion rate. Some of that was Desmond Bane showing some rustiness after his injury break. Also Ja Morant has been a major culprit. Having begun the season shooting 56% from triples in October (six games), his monthly numbers plummeted back below the mean with a 30% rate in November and then 24.3% in December (12 games in each).
Okay, so the three-ball didn’t improve... what did? Well to be honest they played some vulnerable teams and that’s always beneficial when you’re chasing dubs. The Grizz did shoot twenty fewer triples over those four games compared to the four defeats we’re looking at. Less of a bad thing adds up to a good thing.
More to the point they suddenly rebounded like absolute chonkers. In these four games, Steven Adams alone had 76 rebounds – an average of 19 per game – and a ridiculous 30 of them were at the offensive end. As a team they averaged 63.5 per game in that run which was more than ten in excess of what their opponents averaged. A huge advantage on the boards... and then couple that with some swarming defence and there ya go. One mid-season resurgence required, up steps Steven Adams with a bagillion rebounds and seven and a half extra possessions per game.
It’s no secret that he’s a rebounding mastermind. Steven Adams is a certified lord of the boards, we know this. He’s the best offensive rebounder in the league. Proven fact. But it’s still worth pointing out that during this stretch of games he tied his career high for defensive rebounds in one game (16 vs NO) and then in the very next game set a new career best for offensive boards with 13 against the Kings – the most any player has collected in a single game this season... or in any of the past eight season for that matter. 23 total rebounds against the Kings also tied his personal best. It also made him the first Grizz player to bring in 20+ rebounds in consecutive games.
It was almost greedy of the lad. Enough so that the 15 rebounds he casually hauled in against San Antonio most recently felt like a mere routine effort. Nothing to worry about, just grabbing myself an easy fifteen. Yeah mate.
However you’ve only gotta check the five-game rolling averages across his entire NBA career to see that what he’s been up to lately (and will hopefully continue delivering into the future) has not been normal...
As with most things that Adams gets up to, his teammates see and respect it. Ja Morant was absolutely all over the adulations after the win against the Kings (when Adams set that career high OReb mark)...
Coach got amongst it too...
Let’s be honest, recognition from your peers holds immense value... yet recognition from your head coach is even better as he’s the bloke who decides who plays and who doesn’t.
The Sacramento effort was especially nuts as this was not the first time that he’s wrecked that team this season. It was his third game against them and he has 50 total rebounds against them in that trio, with exactly half of those being offensive rebounds. Yup, in 89 total minutes he has 25 offensive rebounds against the Kings in 2022-23... had to spell that out because those numbers are insane. The Kings are one of five teams that Adams has averaged 16 or more total rebounds against this term although they’re the only ones he’s played more than twice (San Antonio, Philadelphia, Toronto, and Charlotte – obviously skewed by this recent outburst).
Sacramento being a bottom five rebounding team sure aided him in that quest. It’d be a lie to say he didn’t enjoy his matchup with old teammate Domantas Sabonis – the lone rebounding threat in that Kings team and no doubt someone who picked up more than a few tricks from Steve-o back in his rookie season.
You know what? The NBA.com website just did a survey of their thirty lead reporters (one from each team) which unfolded mostly as you’d expect although there were a few wild answers that emerged. The faith in the LA Clippers as the most popular pick to win the West (Memphis were third on 23% with Denver in second). Somebody voting for someone other than Paolo Banchero as rookie of the year (surely the Indiana rep since it was Bennedict Mathurin who got the vote). Nikola Jokic being classed as the best international player yet Luka Doncic being favoured as MVP – voter fatigue is gonna cost Jokic there, clearly (although Doncic deserves it too, he’s completely running that show in Dallas).
By far the strangest call of all, though, was Domantas Sabonis being voted as the best rebounder going around. Since when was that the case? Because that’s not what these numbers seem to suggest...
Rebounds Per Game: Sabonis 12.4 | Adams 11.3
Rebounds Per 36 Minutes: Adams 15.1 | Sabonis 13.1
Rebounding Percentage: Adams 21.9% | Sabonis 20.7%
Team Rebounding Rank: Memphis 2nd | Sacramento 26th
And that’s being kind by not looking closer at the offensive rebounding numbers which we know are heavily skewed in Adams’ favour since that’s his main bag. Or the head to head clashes in which Adams has consistently edged his lil bro on the boards. In those three direct meetings, Adams had rebounds tallies of 11, 16 & 23 while Sabonis had tallies of 11, 13 & 14. Sabonis leads the NBA in rebounds per game which is probably as far as most people bothered to look for a meaningless mid-season survey, and maybe that’s fair enough. But it doesn’t take much digging to bust down the case for Domantas Sabonis > Steven Adams.
The most curious thing about that poll isn’t the nit-picking for first though, the most curious thing is the prevalence for international centres. In recent years it would have been quite easy to predict guys like Andre Drummond, DeAndre Jordan, DeMarcus Cousins and a few others getting all the votes. Dwight Howard too if you lean back a couple more years. Not any longer. Check that list again and the only Americans with votes are Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond, and Mitchell Robinson. You’ve got players from Lithuania, New Zealand, Greece, Switzerland, France, Serbia, and Croatia amongst them with the top three all foreign players.
First thought there was that the NBA has gotten very obsessed with skilled bigs who can shoot from the perimeter and pass like guards and that maybe they’re not pushing the old fashioned rebounding fundamentals as hard as they once did... but that doesn’t add up because most of the skilled bigs with three-point shots and passing abilities are imports too. S’pose there’s nothing else to it but to say that Americans are just soft. Not about that board life. Can’t hack it. Ah well, it’s not for everybody.
Although that’s got nothing to do with the reason why Adams hoovered up so many of the fellas against the Kings in that game. Asked in his post-match IV for the reasoning he responded as thus...
“We sucked at shooting. They kept missing shots so I went and got ‘em”
Checking for inaccuracies.. nope, that makes perfect sense.
As to the defensive yarns, if Steven Adams is your third most recognised defender then your team is going alright. Jaren Jackson Jr missed a decent chunk of the season recovering from offseason surgery to the extent where we’re basically at the halfway point of the term and he’s still not yet played enough to be eligible for most of the per-game stat leaderboards. Yet despite that he’s third in the NBA for total blocks. Brook Lopez has 101 from 39 games, Nic Claxton has 96 from 37 games... and JJJ has 79 from 24 games. Rapidly rising up the standings as he absolutely hounds dudes at the rim. He’s averaging 3.3/gm and that will soon have him way out in front as he racks up the appearances.
By the way, Lopez was voted DPOY on that media poll. If Jackson stays healthy the rest of the way it’s hard to think he won’t surpass him though. Low key... Lopez isn’t even the best defender on his own team. That honour should really go to Giannis Antetokounmpo. However Giannis has lent his own personal endorsement to his buddy Brook so we’ll see how that shapes up. If they split votes then JJJ is in an even better position (there are of course other candidates too).
The Grizzlies therefore have the best shot blocker in the NBA and the best offensive rebounder in the NBA. As well as a point guard who scores points in the paint at a rate that holds up against frontcourt legends. This is a team that utterly and entirely dominates the painted areas.
Then you’ve got Dillon Brooks who also happens to be one of the better on-ball defenders in the league. Brooks is tied first with Joel Embiid across the entire NBA for defensive win shares per game (0.154) – JJJ is third, if you’re wondering – plus DB is the overall leader in total Defensive Win Shares (5.7). He’s got a Defensive Rating of 104.5 and of players with 600+ mins so far, only Nicolas Batum, George Hill, and Jaren Jackson can top that mark. These numbers are per NBA.com. Others may vary. In the 281 minutes that Adams/Brooks/JJJ have shared the court, the Grizzlies have a defensive rating of 102.6
Brooks takes it upon himself to guard the best player in the opposition... except on those occasions where the best player is a big man in which case it’s Steve-o’s turn (as we discussed in the last edition of this column). Brooks locks down the perimeter. Jackson gives it the denials down low. And both of those guys are significantly aided by the presence of Steven Adams, even if Steve’s defensive numbers don’t spring off the page quite so much.
Especially JJJ, who by virtue of not having to guard above his weight class playing centre is therefore free to roam as the help defender, using his judgement to drift off his man and towards the rim. So many of his blocks have caught guys unawares. On his own Jackson is a beastly man to contend with. Combined with Steven Adams it’s a two-man wrecking crew at the rim.
In terms of his specific rim protection, zooming in on that particular aspect, there has very clearly been a rise in Adams’ deterring presence inside. Having hovered around one block per game with Oklahoma City in every season apart from his rookie campaign, his blocks dipped significantly in New Orleans and Memphis... only to suddenly shoot back up again this term. From 1.1 blocks per 100 possessions with the Pellies to 1.4 blk/100poss last season... to 2.0 this time around. Not sure what it is. More aggression? More risks? A coaching implementation? Joining in the fun alongside Jackson? Whatever the deal is, Adams has been boosting it down low...
Adams has spoken in the past about celebrating the fact that his block rates went down as he got more experienced as it showed he was stopped folks from even getting a shot up. These days they’re going up again not because guys are attacking him more but because he’s past the point where simply being a sturdy presence is enough. He’s proactively bossing the show, feeding off the energy of having Jaren Jackson already putting opponents into chaos in the paint. Time for another scoop from our mate Funaki Stats...
Also, just saying, some of these overall defensive numbers do depend on where you’re casting your eyes. The old sneaky DARKO numbers (stands for: “Daily Adjusted and Regressed Kalman Optimized”) balances box scores and plus/minus and based on that particular niche advanced statistical suggestion... Steven Adams is ranked second in the league defensively. A 2.9 Defensive DARKO, tied with Rudy Gobert and Brook Lopez and trailing only Draymond Green. He’s playing the best defence of his career according to that metric.
There are three elite defensive players in this Grizzlies team. Don’t doubt it.
The Look
Somebody Call Security
You reckon it’s a coincidence that Jordan Clarkson tried these shenanigans in a game where Steven Adams was missing with illness?
Yeah, neither does Xavier Tillman...
My Kingdom For A Free Throw
It’s not getting much better, folks. Adams’ wonky free throws were a focus in an earlier Kiwi Steve write-up this season and the same trend has continued. The San Antonio Spurs sent him to the line 11 times last game – the most any team has done so this season and that’s a trend that has every chance of continuing if he doesn’t find a solution to this problem. He has these troughs of trash FT shooting now and then but he usually then has a sharp month to balance it out at around his career mark of around 55% (which has dropped to 53.6% thanks to his poor efforts lately).
Here are Adams’ free throw percentages per month this term...
October (7 games) – 22.2%
November (13gm) – 33.3%
December (12gm) – 38.5%
January (4gm) – 33.3%
The clip there shows a disturbing vision. That catch in his arc, with the way he drops his left hand. It’s actually quite confusing how a bloke as meticulous about his game as Steven Adams is could allow such a thing to creep in. If it’s a deliberate effort to shoot one-handed then it’s not working. The bloke’s jump shot is almost never witnessed in games but we’ve all seen enough leaked training footage to know that he’s got a tidy enough shooting action when he needs it. Could be a mental hang-up. Regardless, this looks like something that the Memphis Grizzlies shooting coaches need to put some close attention upon.
On the plus side, of the six times that Adams has shot 6+ free throws in a game this season, the Grizzlies have won five. Adams doesn’t take too many purposeless touches. Teams only get to send him to the line when he’s owning the boards and attacking the rim. Things which have far more upside than the risk of him missing some free throws at the end of the possession and there aren’t too many hombres strong enough to wrap him up intentionally without him getting his shot away from that distance. Just gotta be careful we don’t end up in Hack-A-Steve territory as the Spurs flirted with. It’s something to watch, anyway.
SLAM DUNKS
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