Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Finding Form vs Knights
New Zealand Warriors head over to Newcastle this weekend with the three top grades taking on Knights and as always, there is plenty to digest in the three Warriors teams named. The NRL Warriors have won three games and lost one against Knights since the start of last season, scoring 20+ points in all four games and keeping Knights to less than 20 points in three of the four games.
The only win for Knights since the two Andys took over was in Newcastle and despite a total points tally of 104-68 across four games, this will be a tricky encounter for NZW. To balance out the Knights home factor we have NZW rolling out two of their best performances of the season in Australia which was a loss to Storm and win over Rabbitohs. Unfortunately, NZW also had a pesky loss to Dragons in Sydney and somehow NZW now have back to back losses vs Dragons and Titans.
This is a round nine game in the NRL and NZW were 5-4 after nine games last season, which settled at 5-5 after 10 games. NZW were 11th with that 5-5 record after round 10 and this provides a wrinkle of optimism about how they are tracking this season, especially as some stats are fairly similar as well.
NZW are scoring less tries per game than last season with 4.1 dropping down to 3.5 tries per game this season. Notable but not a hefty drop.
NZW scored 23.8 points per game last season and this drops to 21 this season.
NZW conceded 18.6 points per game last season and there is a slight increase to 18.8 this season.
NZW missed 33.4 tackles per game last season and average 29.5 missed tackles per game this season.
All of which is aligned with the eye test of watching NZW footy. They are toiling hard and despite some pesky losses, they are battling to offer the right effort and intensity in defence. The defensive attitude can't be questioned right now but folks can question how effective NZW are with the footy and there are multiple examples this season of NZW struggling to provide clinical attacking movements.
NZW have scored 20+ points against Knights in all four games under coach Andrew Webster though and this confidence could fuel a return to the shape we came to love last season. As expected there are no changes to a backline that features Charne Nicoll-Klokstad and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck combining to put up some of the best running mahi of their careers.
Nicoll-Klokstad averaged 188m/game last season which was the highest of his career, until this season. Somehow Nicoll-Klokstad has added 100m to average 288m/game this season and his return to fullback has seen Nicoll-Klokstad shine as one of the best players for NZW in a tricky phase of results.
This is extra funky as NZW are second behind Panthers for average kick return metres per game and they are the only teams averaging over 200 KRM/game. Nicoll-Klokstad is starting sets nicely for NZW and his ability to charge into defenders with a splash of power as well as getting between defenders through footwork could trouble Knights.
Tuivasa-Sheck is averaging 185m/game, most of which has come at centre. This isn't as high as his three consecutive seasons averaging 200+ metres per game at fullback prior to leaving NZW, but Tuivasa-Sheck is currently averaging more metres per game than each of his first three seasons with NZW which were all played at fullback. NZW have no issues getting Tuivasa-Sheck opportunities to do what he does best in running the footy.
NZW are scoring less tries, so it makes sense that wingers Dallin Watene-Zelezniak and Marcelo Montoya aren't scoring as many tries. Watene-Zelezniak averaged 1.2 tries per game last season and this drops to 0.71 this season. Montoya averaged 0.4 tries per game last season and is now averaging 0.25 this season.
Kurt Capewell returns to the forward pack, along with Bunty Afoa who joins Dylan Walker and Tom Ale as the middle forwards on the bench. NZW also have Jacob Laban on the bench and folks should expect Laban to have a stint on either side of the field, highlighting an intriguing development zone for Laban as he learns how to play on both edges in the NRL.
The trio of middle forwards should ensure that Laban doesn't play middle and as with every other game this season, how coach Webster deploys his bench forwards will be interesting. NZW can get away with Tohu Harris, Mitchell Barnett and Addin Fonua-Blake playing big minutes but the best NZW footy of this era usually features strong bench performances.
Keep in mind that Afoa played less than 27mins in his five games this season and while Ale hit 30mins vs Dragons then 29mins vs Titans, they were both losses. Coach Webster needs to find a lovely balance at some point and while this bench appears primed to add plenty of oomph against Knights, no one should expect Afoa and Ale to play more minutes until Webster proves otherwise.
The NSW Cup Warriors have named Motu Pasikala on the wing and he is the latest Under 19 SG Ball player to earn a NSW Cup debut. Pasikala played fullback for the SG Ball team after leaving Tonga to play 1st 15 at Liston College and then being recruited by NZW for this year. Pasikala dabbled in U21 Jersey Flegg footy and now joins Sio Kali, Jacob Auloa and Kayliss Fatialofa in moving from SG Ball to NSW Cup this year.
NZW have two young hookers to tap in with as Auloa quickly moved from U19 to NSW Cup and Makaia Tafua has snapped up his opportunities in moving up from U21 to NSW Cup. Both are high quality dummy halves and they are now sharing this role in NSW Cup, while Luke Hanson and Harry Durbin have also settled in NSW Cup after starting the season in Jersey Flegg.
As we have highlighted many times, NZW have signed five young halves from Australia. Jett Cleary is simply the latest young half to join NZW as Hanson, Jesse Soric, Tallan Egan and U17 champion Jack Thompson have all joined NZW over the past six months. The NSW Cup team has Hanson and fellow Aussie Ben Farr in the halves (add in Farr and Luke Metcalf for seven halves from Australia joining NZW), but Tokoroa's Cassius Cowley and Marist junior Caleb Laiman are holding down the halves mahi in Jersey Flegg now.
The U21 team named to play Knights does not have any Aussie in it to balance things out. This team features Gary Tuilekutu (Avalon Rugby) and Toby Crosby (Upper Hutt) from Wellington, plus Nganatatafu Vake from Rotorua Boys High School. The rest of the lads in Jersey Flegg this week are from Auckland but this can be countered by a Harold Matthews Cup team full of regional scouting, plus lads like Durbin (Pikiao) and Tanner Stowers-Smith (Halswell) in NSW Cup.
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